Figure 1. Graphical summary of our answer in Timeglider, where colour distinguishes threat (also bullet point colour below), vertical position indicates threat level, size represents importance and symbol represents type of event reported.
This investigation was led by Electronic Publishing MSc students with experience in Journalism who took the giCentre's Data Visualisation module earlier this year. Our group met weekly. Throughout the period, we used a Google Document shared amongst the team to record findings and propose ideas.
We used the following tools:
Figure 1. Graphical summary of our answer in Timeglider, where colour distinguishes threat (also bullet point colour below), vertical position indicates threat level, size represents importance and symbol represents type of event reported.
Timeglider helped us both piece our answer together and present our answer, as shown in Figure 1. The web-based interface allows labels to be added at specific times, symbolised, sized and coloured. Evidence was gathered using DocumentView's fast and responsive interface and Jigsaw's network representations as shown the video. Members of the team identified leads, followed them up and added to our other evidence in our shared Google Document.
1. Home-grown terror threat - high confidence
See video and Figure 2 for the process.
An expert warned that the authorities are inadequately protected against threats Paramurderers of Chaos, Network of Hate and other groups. The authorities do not wish to discuss these [4080]. These groups been involved in arrests to terrorism activity and the FBI have seen a rise in radical groups. See threats 2 and 3.
We recommend the authorities reach out to these experts to help identify groups.
♦2. Food threat - high confidence (Figure 2)
Who: Paramurderers of Chaos; what: food bioterrorism; where: Vastopolis; when: soon; how: microbial contamination of food factories.
An official report about threat of bioterrorism (particularly food) [3040] and expert advice [3212] were issued. Three Paramurderers of Chaos experts were caught constructing a laboratory (with petri-dishes) in a basement were arrested [3435] and another "dangerous" representative arrested 2 days later for trespassing around a food preparation plant [1878].
Although plot disrupted, members of the plot are likely at large.
♦3. Weapons threat - high confidence (Figure 2)
Who: Network of Hate; what: weapons (targeting airlines?); where: maybe Vastopolis, but exports too; when: a matter of time how: weapons in hands of terrorists
Someone linked to "Network of Hate" was caught with surface-to-air missiles [2395] probably stolen from Vastopolis Armed Forces [2287]. The rest of the stolen cache was sent for export but we don't know who by [499]. Missiles are significant - consistent with one of the Antarctica Airlines crash theories [1976] where terrorism is suspected [2022].
We recommend authorities investigate whether other airlines are under threat.
♦4. Dirty bomb threat - high confidence
Who: Network of Dread; what: dirty bomb; where: American cities; when: DHS have delayed, but a matter of time how: bomb
DHS foiled a Washington dirty-bomb plot from overseas-based Network of Dread. Experts warn this is within the technical ability of other organisations; main limitation is availability of radioactive material [3231]. However, radioactive material was intercepted days before [1671] and their intention to attack targets across the country is known [383]. The games are an obvious target (see threat 6). They have also been threatening the press [129] and its a threat being taken seriously [1088].
We recommend authorities ensure radioactive material is secured and searched for at ports.
♦5. Air travel bomb threat - medium confidence
Who: Groups linked to Carson Eldred; what: American planes; where: Asia, maybe elsewhere; when: unknown, but Vastopolis is due to be an international hub how: bombs
See Figure 3 for identification of Antartica Airlines incident. Crash was in New York. Cause believed to be a missile (see threat 2) or bomb. Explosive traces found in wreckage (e.g. [182/4005]). Carson Eldred is reported as linked [4163] (Figure 5) to this incident, to a west coast plane bomb plot in 2010 and the International Commerce Center. Subsequently convicted [2961] for American planes plot over Asia and linked to others. Vastopolis airport is due to expand to an international hub [1211] which will make this more likely in future. It is also criticised for security lapses [947]
We recommend authorities ensure the security is maintained at the airport.
♦6. Games bomb plot? - low confidence
Who: Unknown what: pipe bomb; where: Vastopolis Games; when: soon (during games) how: pipe bomb
Figure 4 shows articles filtered by "antarctica" and an "On line center" article (collections of apparently random snippets, repeated a number of times) mentions the Antarctica plane crash before it happens (25 May), bombing of American base in Saudi Arabia (already happened) and pipe bomb at the games (which hasn't happened).
We suggest that authorities be vigilant against a possible Pipe Bomb threat.
♦7. Center for Criminally Unsane threat - low confidence
Who: Convicts from Center what: explosion; where: Smogtown; when: unknown how: unknown.
Little evidence. Psychobrotherhood. Security may have lapsed [4312] and escapees recruited for terrorist activity [3232].
We recommend the Center is forced to review its security policy.
♦8. Hacker threat
♦9. Animal activist threat - low confidence
These two lines of enquiry are related to hackers' activity and an organisation called Citizens for the Ethical Treatment of Lab Mice. However, the evidence suggests that these are minor threats that are restricted in scope.
Figure 2. Jigsaw's graph view, depicting articles (numbered white squares), linked to entities and watchwords. Clicking on the plus symbol reveals the articles that link through these. Document 4080 is the expert speaking out (threat 1). Terrorists groups, people and linked documents are identified.
Figure 3. DocumentView shows articles along a timeline (grey dots) with selected range (red). The first column shows the most distinctive words in that selection compared to whole corpus (note "terrorism", "crash" and "antarctica"; uses chi statistic), watchwords we've identified (numbers are total occurrence and number of articles) and article (right). Updated on-the-fly.
Figure 4. DocumentView, showing articles containing the "Antarctica" keyword. The article reports the Antarctica Airlines crash on the day it happened (30 March) is marked on the timeline in green. The grey dot on the day before reports a boost in earnings (unrelated to the crash). But the article shown (red line on timeline) mentions the crash several days before it happened. Note pipe-bomb report (amongst seemingly random clippings).
Figure 5. Graph from Jigsaw shows how we connected Cason Eldred to both the Antarctica crash and the other airline terrorist plots (threat 5).